Next kpop giant NCT, TXT, ATEEZ or Stray Kids?
All of these groups have been around for at least over a year and have each grown a pretty solid fan base, although all of them (except for maybe TXT) are by far more popular internationally. My final verdict is as follows:
Ateez -> (TXT ->) NCT -> Stray Kids
Reasons for this ranking:
- Ateez
Ateez debuted by the end of 2018 from a company nobody has ever heard of before: KQ Entertainment. Still, they managed to gain an insane amount of popularity (internationally) compared to other (relatively) new groups from the Big 4 (I'm counting bighit in. BTS is way too big not to acknowledge that, and if bighit were to debut more groups then just TXT right now (such as a girl group), I believe they might even take the top spot of Korea's entertainment companies. But this is not important right now, so nvm).
I know that they are more popular internationally and that it will undoubtedly take some time for them to grow in Korea, but they are on the rise. And even if it doesn't work out that well in Korea, they could, similarly to Blackpink, gain a HUGE international fanbase and become successful that way. That happens to be that way because no matter if you are an ATINY or not, you can't deny their insane talent (especially in dance), versatility, stage presence and visuals, as well as the uniqueness of their concept. Also, they participate in the writing of the group's songs. So, all in all, I see loads of potential in Ateez and believe that their popularity is bound to skyrocket even more in the future.
2. NCT
NCT has been around for more than three years, which is the longest of all groups that are to be compared here, so I think we can already pronounce a pretty clear verdict on their popularity in the future. Yes, they are from SM, and yes, they have a substantial fanbase, especially in America. But still, NCT will never be the most popular group around because when you get into kpop, you usually don't start with NCT.
This is due to their unlimited member concept that confuses new fans of the genre, even though they might join the fanbase later on, as I did. Still, it is hard to stan and keep up with all the subunits, which also seem to change up all the time except for WayV. You might find that you like specific subunits and dislike others, and that is okay, but that way, the loyalty of the fans to the group as a whole is not always a given. For instance, many people stan NCT 127 or Dream but don't listen to songs from WayV a lot, which is not beneficial to the success of the group as a whole.
Also, as many fans of kpop only want to listen to music in Korean, other NCT subunits that might be planned such as an NCT Thailand or NCT Vietnam or whatever (like WayV is NCT China and NCT 127 is NCT Korea) will not be very successful internationally and might even fail in their target countries. More than that, NCT has a particular sound and style in their songs that you can either love or hate.
I would describe this as weirdness/experimentality. Mainly NCT U and NCT 127 do not produce your stereotypical flower boy boy group or hip hop boy group music; they don't follow a concept that fits anywhere. This is why NCTizens love them and what fans of other groups are repulsed by, which is why I believe that there is a limit as to where their popularity in the kpop community can grow. An indicator for that is that their popularity hasn't changed much over the years: Neither has it suddenly significantly increased nor decreased. Their already big fandom will continue to steadily and slowly rise, but they will not blow up like other groups might - they have been too long on the game for that.
3. Stray Kids
Stray Kids are the representatives of JYP in this list and were quite popular right off the bat because of that. Among all of the groups that shall be compared here, they probably have the darkest and most grimy sound overall because of their INSANE Rap line. And even though they are not best known for it, they can also do softer songs like I am You, making them versatile, but they are and always will be nearly a hip hop group. Stray Kids were successful last year with Miroh and Double Knot mostly.
Still, since they haven't seen a significant rise in popularity since their debut and a lot of their popularity essentially derives from their company's name, I think their popularity will, similarly to NCT, not suddenly increase a lot. Also, with Main Vocal Woojin leaving the group in (2019), the group has suffered a significant setback, in my opinion. Although Woojin has always been one of the least popular group members, I think members leaving the group doesn't even help in terms of popularity.
Moreover, no fans of Stray Kids will likely not start stanning them in the future because their music is mainly (insanely good) rap and beats, but little melody. And the main vocal leaving the group doesn't help that, even though they seem to be taking a softer approach in some of their songs. So, even more than NCT, Stray Kids are confined to a specific niche, but while NCT creates their very own place, Stray Kids are pretty much limited to the very beats-heavy and dark part of the hip hop niche.
This is what their fans love them for, so they can't suddenly change that, especially considering how many rappers are in this group compared to vocalists. In other words, their popularity is limited to people who like this niche, so they won't suddenly blow up, especially considering that this hasn't happened yet. Consequently, I believe they will take the number 4 spot.
4. TXT
I think it is tough to tell where TXT could go in the future. They could either be successful or fail compared to BTS. Being from the same company as BTS, the hype around them was huge, which is why they blew up the most out of the four groups here. That is only natural since the only other boy group ever debuting from bighit was the most successful kpop group ever: BTS. So, no matter if a person had been a BTS fan or not, they would have had to at least look into TXT once to call themselves a true kpop fan.
This is how TXT's first MV got lots and lots of views after being first released. In other words: They blew up. Big time. By now, crown has reached more than 100 M views, which is incredible for a rookie group that just debuted last year. So, right from the start, many, many people became TXT supporters. However, we can see that the hype around them died down significantly with the next few MVs, which have so far only gained about half of (Cat & Dog) and a quarter (Run Away) of Crown's views.
Also, even though many of their fans still support them wholeheartedly support them dor their music, I've seen lots of fans who just stan because of BTS. I think that because of that, their fanbase might still be significant but not as stable and loyal as NCTzens, Stays and Atinys. Also, I feel like many people can't relate to their songs like they can to BTS songs. This might be more of a personal opinion. Still, if the reason most people like TXT is because they like BTS's music (otherwise, they wouldn't have gotten there in all likelihood), we should assume that in order people to like TXT, TXT's songs should come close to BTS songs in meaningfulness, relativeness and authenticity. And in my opinion, all primary TXT songs released so far failed to meet this criterium.
They don't feel real, as if even the TXT members couldn't relate to them. That is probably the case since I think the members didn't write them themselves and are also forced to follow the soft, cute innocent Dream-concept TXT is modelled after right now, so authenticity is not a given relativeness isn't there either. Even though BTS didn't write the lyrics for their first songs either (I guess, correct me if I'm wrong), they at least seemed to fit with the member's general beliefs and views on the world, so they could pull it off in a way that you could resonate with the songs anyway. This is where TXT is lacking, in my opinion.
However, I expect bighit to give them some more freedom soon and also a shift in their concept (like, the songs becoming gradually darker and the cute, boyish-dreamy-side slowly becomes less relevant) because this happened with BTS. Still, the other way around and made them extremely successful. So if you look at all these aspects, you will find that it is tough to predict how successful TXT might become in the future because it will solely depend on the next steps bighit takes if TXT can become a significant success or not. Besides, if bighit lets TXT members participate in the writing of the songs, it will also depend on their abilities as songwriters and producers how far this group can go, since great dancing, singing, and rap skills are already there (but honestly, most kpop groups have that).
So, TXT could either become the most successful out of the four groups, be stuck somewhere in the middle or go to the bottom with a solid average fanbase where your average song gets 30 M views after nine months or so. Truthfully, I don't expect bighit to fail them or their talents as songwriters to be nonexistent, so I believe that they won't be the least popular ones, at least in the future.
It is also hard to say where Ateez will go, and considering the incredible talent of all Ateez members, I think Ateez will be more successful than TXT. For if you look at the situation as it is now, TXT might have won all ROTY awards for 2019 in existence (that might be because they are quite popular in Korea because BTS) and also might have had one extremely successful MV and two other significantly successful songs, Ateez has gained an unbelievable amount of popularity for a rookie of an unknown company in their first year, which is the more remarkable achievement in my opinion. While Ateez gained popularity, TXT lost it. So, Ateez is superior for now.
In conclusion, I have no idea what will happen, but I believe that girl groups, in general, will become more successful in kpop in the next generation. Blackpink led the way, now Itzy and Everglow are on the rise, especially internationally (although Itzy is also supported mostly in Korea). People who don't like girl crush concepts will still find more than enough girl groups with cute ideas such as Twice and Gfriend, Baby Monsters incoming. I think there will be no second BTS, so the most successful group will ultimately be female (since today, the biggest fandoms after Armys are Blinks and ONCEs). But we are going to see that.
Congrats if you made it until here. I'm your fan.
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